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An Inconvenient Truth
Posted by Temporal at 2006/04/26 02:22:35 CDT

Al Gore is making a movie

I recently saw the talk on which this movie is based. When I heard Al Gore was coming to talk about climate change, honestly I thought it sounded boring. But it was Al Gore and I sort of figure that any time a former elected president of the United States is going to come to my work place to give a talk, I should go see him. (This is the second such occurrance.) As for my thoughts on "climate change" itself, I believed it was happening but wasn't really sure if it mattered that much.

At the beginning of the talk he said something about how people have told him this talk changed their lives. I rolled my eyes. At the end of the talk, though, I understood. It was stunning. I was holding back tears at points.

I don't want to try to make the arguments myself, because there's no way I can do it as well as he did. So, I'm just going to say, please see this movie. I promise it will not be boring, nor will it be full of partisan hate. This is not a political issue.

I'll share one of Gore's most interesting points, though: A couple decades ago, we had another problem that you might remember, involving chloroflourocarbons, a widely-used chemical that was destroying the ozone layer. People pushed to ban their use. Companies whined and complained and made a political issue out of it, claiming a ban would be bad for the economy. But, we signed a treaty agreeing to reduce them. Interestingly enough, this created a new industry full of companies selling ways to eliminate CFCs, far from the economic ruin that was predicted. And guess what? We solved the problem.

Incidentally, everyone I've talked to who went to the talk also came away from it thinking "God damn, I wish that Al Gore had run for president!". In 2000 he came off as devoid of emotion, but in this talk he was firey and inspiring.

I'll leave you with these commercials for the Chevy Tahoe, the massive SUV that gets 12-15mpg and serves as the basis for the Hummer (which is just a Tahoe with a different exterior).

Note to self: Do not let internet users make your commercials for you.

2006/04/28 01:28:21 CDT by novacodova

Go read State of Fear by Michael Crichton and read the notes at the bottom of some of the pages. That will bring you back to reality.

2006/04/28 04:02:46 CDT by Temporal
[Temporal's avatar]

Oh, yes, because a work of fiction is a better reference than peer-reviewed scientific papers.

2006/04/29 14:36:19 CDT by novacodova

It is a fiction but the references are not... there is alot of money involved in "fighting" global warming, which could just be a normal earth warming cycle.

2006/04/29 15:33:30 CDT by Temporal
[Temporal's avatar]

In his talk, Gore presented a lot of data which made the "it's a cycle" argument look silly. I don't remember all the specifics, though, so you'll have to see the movie.

There was one graph showing CO2 levels over the last couple million years, sort of like the one below except that it was more up-to-date and went back farther. As you can see, yes, we are currently at a peak after tens of thousands of years of increases, which is probably where the "it's just a cycle" people get their argument. However, you'll also notice that it has shot up dramatically since the industrial revolution, to the point where CO2 levels now are significantly higher than they have ever been.

[image]

Dunno what other evidence you need, really, but Gore's talk had tons.

2006/04/30 11:32:48 CDT by derch
Edited at 2006/04/30 11:57:00 CDT

Don't believe his lies! Why did they take core samples from Antarctica? How did they extrapolate the temperature data from so long ago? Is it a reliable process? How much impact can we really have? And what are *feasible* solutions?

PS: Katrina wouldn't have been that devastating if we had just built stronger dikes in the beginning, and stronger houses. If you keep building your house out of straw, in an area full of strong winds, expect it to get blown down. Houses in hurricane areas should be made of concrete and brick, not wood and sheetrock.

http://www.junkscience.com/news/robinson.htm -- an interesting perspective.
Why does Al Gore want to kill trees?

http://www.ncpa.org/ba/ba230.html

2006/05/02 00:20:05 CDT by Temporal
Edited at 2006/05/02 11:31:56 CDT
[Temporal's avatar]

[UPDATE: It has come to my attention that Tim was joking, and it totally flew over my head. Sorry. Full response kept for posterity.]

Tim, I'm sorry, but those links suck. Allow me to rip them apart.

Your first link is attributed to Dow Jones and was printed in the Wall Street Journal. Dow Jones, being a major industrial company that produces copious amounts of CO2, would obviously have an interest in discrediting global warming, and The Wall Street Journal is known to have a heavy conservative bias. Of course, these two facts don't, on their own, automatically make them wrong. What qualifies the article as Grade A Bullshit is the sources, or lack thereof. The only things resembling citations that I can find on that page are the sources for the two graphs. The first graph -- which does not actually contradict global warming, but only shows that solar magnetic cycles also affect temperature -- is attributed to the "Astrophysical Journal", a journal of astronomy, not climatology. I would like to look up the paper which this graph came from to see if it actually had anything to do with global warming (doesn't look like it), but I can't, because the article does not cite the actual paper. The second graph is cited as coming from the "Marshall Institute" which, as it turns out, is a political organization, not a scientific one. This so-called "institute" employs a lobbyist for ExxonMobil as its CEO. I suspect this graph is highly doctored, especially since it contradicts every other graph of temperature over time that I've seen. If these are the best sources the Wall Street Journal can come up with, what does that tell you?

Now, the second article. The NCPA is, again, a policy organization, which says on its own web site that its "goal is to develop and promote private alternatives to government regulation and control, solving problems by relying on the strength of the competitive, entrepreneurial private sector.". Based on that alone, what do you expect this organization's stance to be? Of course, again, the fact that they have a stated bias towards one side does not automatically make them wrong, so let's look again at their sources. Oh, what's this? Once again, they have mostly failed to cite any sources. The only citations are the graphs. The first one is attributed to The Washington Times, a newspaper that is well-known for sitting somewhere to the right of Attila the Hun. The second citation is a Gallup Poll. Again, if these are the best sources the NCPA can find, it only makes me more convinced that global warming is real.

Since these articles fail to cite any sources that are both reliable and relevant, I have no reason to believe that their "facts" and numbers are any less fictional that Michael Crichton's book.

If you can find me one recent, peer-reviewed scientific paper which contains evidence that global warming is not real, please do share it.

I'd like to point out that no one has a private interest in enacting anti-emissions legislation. You cannot claim that Democrats are in this for the money.

Added at 2006/05/02 00:58:32 CDT

And to address the rest of your post directly...

Quote from derch:

Don't believe his lies!

That's just offensive. Why would he be lying about this? At worst he's just wrong and misguided. It's only the polluters who have a reason to lie.

Quote from derch:

Why did they take core samples from Antarctica? How did they extrapolate the temperature data from so long ago? Is it a reliable process?

Our favorite anti-creationism site has some descriptions and even cites their sources!

I have not seen any claims that these measurements are inaccurate, nor can I find any on Google. Indeed, many anti-global-warming sites, such as this one, seem to cite the Vostok ice core as evidence for their cause (noting the cycles).

Quote from derch:

How much impact can we really have?

The large impact we've had on atmospheric CO2 levels is not debated.

Quote from derch:

And what are *feasible* solutions?

Enforce the treaty. Put economic pressure on companies who release lots of carbon. They will be forced to switch to cleaner technologies (creating/strengthening the market for said cleaner technologies). It worked with CFCs and it can work with CO2.

Quote from derch:

PS: Katrina wouldn't have been that devastating if we had just built stronger dikes in the beginning, and stronger houses. If you keep building your house out of straw, in an area full of strong winds, expect it to get blown down. Houses in hurricane areas should be made of concrete and brick, not wood and sheetrock.

This is obviously all true. However, at the same time, you don't have to be terribly observant to notice the increase in hurricanes lately, nor does it take much to understand that increased temperature = more energy = stronger storms. That said, I suspect they play up the hurricane issue because it's something real that people can easily relate to, whereas the real problems of global warming (increased sea levels, CO2 poisoning sea life, reduction in arable land, etc.) are much harder for the average person to grasp.

2006/05/02 07:57:40 CDT by derch
Edited at 2006/05/02 09:02:46 CDT

I wasn't being serious. I was being silly. I thought the "junkscience" was just funny because it said junkscience and i thought posting that would be funny. But I'm glad you took the time to point out all those things in case people thought I was being seriuos.

(Just to make it clear, the article says something about bio-related growth of trees, but scientists dont agree that it would necessarily be a sustained rate of bio-mass growth, but rather an increased production that would return to normal after plants become "acclimated". and "Don't believe his lies" was a quote from Momento)

The take away message from the second link was 'perhap we should wait until more data can be collected before we take action'. I just thought that I would point out it may be more economical to wait. But with gas prices going the way they are going, we're not going to have to wait long before something drastically alters our way of transportation. (for example: not the segway)

*How much impact can we really have (was meant to be individually). To my understanding, most of
the CO2 is coming from coal burning facilities.
*Enforcing what treaty? I can't do anything about no treaty. But I will eat tasty treats. (being silly)

Now to be serious:

Yes, we do need to find alternative sources. Yes the planet is heating up. However, this is a long-term problem that needs to be addressed as such. We can't just expect everyone to switch over to something new right away. Your argument for CFC's is somewhat illogical as there are substitutes such as other refrigerants that can be used (They did have to redesign the AC systems to handle the different material properties.) We just don't have the infrastructure to switch over to electric just yet. (We might if we had decided to spend that 250billion in Iraq on something else)

Now to be silly:

Yes, I will continue to drive my car, pass gas, and breathe, thus contributing to global warming.

www.ytmnd.com (i was going to find a cool link, but i'm afraid to click on them in class with people sitting behind me)

PS: I had no idea you were so passionate about the environment Kenton. If you want, I can hook you up with some environmentalists from out here in NH, or one group based out of Montana/Wyoming (but they're doing work with China on their energy production needs). Or others from San Bernadino in CA. I know some peeps if you're really into conservation, reduction, and minimal impact environment type stuff.

2006/05/02 08:23:17 CDT by derch
Edited at 2006/05/02 09:04:51 CDT

yay for anti-creationism.
[image]
WARNING: Will waste a lot of time if you want to read through the entire comic series.

2006/05/02 08:26:42 CDT by derch
Edited at 2006/05/02 09:06:37 CDT

Soon society will begin living in pod houses like
this.

And then when ghetto's develop, it'll turn into this.

"How much you want for the wee one?" ~Waterworld.

whats wrong with global warming? Man evolved from the sea, and now Man is going to return to the sea.

2006/05/02 11:45:44 CDT by Temporal
[Temporal's avatar]

Sorry for misinterpreting your post.

Yes, it is a long-term problem. Gore says we have about ten years to do something. The NCPA page actually says we have 25 years... from 1995. So, 14 years. Surprisingly similar estimates.

The thing is, if we don't start now, it's going to be much harder to do what we need to do later. This change can't happen overnight; as you've pointed out, we don't have the infrastructure. So, we need to start encouraging people to build that infrastructure now.

Quote from derch:

Your argument for CFC's is somewhat illogical as there are substitutes such as other refrigerants that can be used

Hydrogen.

Quote from derch:

I had no idea you were so passionate about the environment Kenton.

I'm actually not. I think a lot of environmentalist positions are just silly emotional things. Like, I don't really care if we drill in the ANWR, except that it would delay the switch to alternative energy sources.

Like I said, before I saw Gore's talk I didn't really care about global warming. I'm convinced now, though, that it could create a lot of real suffering.

Although, come to think of it... it sounds like the real problems won't happen until at least 2020... and that's when AI takes over the Earth and solves all our problems for us.

Still, I think solving global warming would be a much better focus for our country than terrorism.

2006/05/02 13:39:12 CDT by derch
Edited at 2006/05/02 13:41:35 CDT

If it gets too hot, we could always move to mars and f* their s* up too
(the real reason why i have so many posts in a row is cause i hit submit too many times and couldnt delete the posts. i didnt want to leave them blank so hence cyanide & happiness.....truth comes out.) I'll hit submit just once this time.

2006/05/05 01:34:06 CDT by novacodova

The World is a breathing living thing, should we protect it, YES, I am just saying that Al Gore is a fucking dip shit that will do anything for his fucking party and for money just like most of the politicians in the great land of D.C. I am also saying don't fall into the political trap of either major party.

Just like there are facts about power plants there are facts about how trees are causing global warming. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4604332.stm Because of this should we go chop down trees or quit planning them? NO. I am saying we are doing the best we can... if you travel in Europe or other places in the World you will find that there are places much worse then we are at conservation of the environment. We cannot solve global warming, the Earth will do it for us with or without our "help."

The Earth is a large ball of iron with a bunch of creatures living on it. We have little to no control over it. If earthquakes happen, they happen. If hurricanes happen, they happen. We cannot control nature. We can protect the Earth by doing what we think is right, which we do a OK job at. Earth will correct itself, violently if necessary... we have gone through a few ice ages in the past as well as switching of poles... it will survive, we just might not.

Al Gore is just a tool to get a slanted message out.
He also invented the Internet... Just like I invented cheetos.... mmm cheetos

2006/05/05 11:25:51 CDT by Temporal
[Temporal's avatar]
Quote from novacodova:

He also invented the Internet...

Your reference to an urban legend about Al Gore (the one in which he claims to have invented the Internet) makes me think you don't actually know very much about Al Gore.

2006/05/07 17:46:59 CDT by novacodova

It was a joke actually...

What he said on CNN's March 9, 1999 'Late Edition':

"Well, I will be offering -- I'll be offering my vision when my campaign begins. And it will be comprehensive and sweeping. And I hope that it will be compelling enough to draw people toward it. I feel that it will be.

But it will emerge from my dialogue with the American people. I've traveled to every part of this country during the last six years. During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the Internet. I took the initiative in moving forward a whole range of initiatives that have proven to be important to our country's economic growth and environmental protection, improvements in our educational system."

2006/05/07 18:15:42 CDT by Temporal
[Temporal's avatar]

Yep. And what he said is correct.

Al Gore didn't talk much about climate change in 2000 because his consultants told him it wouldn't help him win. I believe that the Al Gore I saw speaking was not worried about such politics and was focusing on what he believes and is passionate about.

BTW, I have no doubt that whatever happens, the human species will survive. It just might suffer a drastic reduction in population.

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